The societal impacts of natural disasters depend on the location of human settlements and the social vulnerability of populations at risk. Our study of hurricane risk on the U.S. Gulf Coast during 1950-2005 estimates the spatial extent of wind damage from every hurricane in this extended period. These estimates are calculated using the HURRECON model, based on the known path and wind speeds of individual storms and calibrated to fit actual damage reports for a sample of Gulf Coast storms. In addition we model storm surge, which in some cases is the most devastating aspect of a hurricane. We do this with SLOSH models adapted from NOAA and applied to each hurricane based on information about the hurricane and also on topographical features such as elevation. Several team members participated in developing these estimates, and the main modeling work was carried out by Dr. Zengwang Xu, now a faculty member in Geography at the University of Wisconsin in Milwaukee.

Knowing where hurricanes hit, with how much force, allows us to do two kinds of analyses. First, we are interested in estimating what areas - and based on this - what kinds of populations are most at risk from hurricane damage. We have prepared a map of each hurricane that displays our estimates. Click here to see a list of hurricanes with links to a pdf file for each one. A publication that describes our methodology in detail can be downloaded here.

A second purpose is to discover what the longer term impacts of these hurricanes were. We find that despite continued coastal development and population growth, settlement has tended to shift away from higher risk zones. But the more vulnerable population groups - the elderly, African Americans, and poor - have shifted in the opposite direction, which we interpret as a cautionary sign of diminished capacity for resilience to disaster. To understand the processes more clearly, we have completed longitudinal analyses of changes in county-level populations and employment patterns that estimate changes associated with wind damage in each of the five years following a hurricane.

There is a link here to a preliminary report that combines estimates of wind damage across all hurricanes, and analyzes the spatial pattern in relation to annual population change, categorized by age, race, and poverty status since 1970. Hurricanes with above average intensity have negative effects for three successive years, especially on the white population and young adults, and more in low poverty counties than in high poverty counties. Our interpretation is that people recognize the risk from hurricanes, and people with the means to do so tend to avoid risky zones.